Philosophy
Everyday we hear an interesting causal claim "The market is up(down) on news that..." How do the financial reporters make this statement? Seem like there are three possibilities:
(1) They interview traders and ask them what influenced their thinking on the day.
(2) They examine stocks that are reasonably associated with the news of the day and imply the effect from the movement of those particular companies.
(3) They simply look for something important that happened and infer causation from correlation, post hoc ergo propter hoc.
Which one is it or is there another possibility?
- The Future Of Tv News
The last couple of weeks have seen a pair of contrasting retirement announcements in the TV news world. On the one hand, there was Katie Couric, a journalistic lightweight who tried to seem more serious with pre-prepared gotcha questions. On the other...
- Post Clinton, Ergo Propter Clinton
From Marty Peretz, Editor of The New Republic, Worse can be said of Bill Clinton's stumping in Connecticut for Joe (and Hillary's endorsement, too.) When Clinton came into the state, Lieberman and Lamont were running dead even in the polls, more...
- Michael Specter - The Danger Of Science Denial
There is an epidemic of growing proportions afflicting ever-increasing numbers of unsuspecting victims: poor, alarmist, fluffy and discombobulated thinking. We are drowning in a sea of logical fallacies, strangling each other with accusations of guilt...
- Coal Mine Tragedy Is Good For Business?
This is crass and cold and Wall Street is filled with "blood-thirsty vultures". "Bad Week for Coal Workers, Not So Bad Week for Coal Stocks" by Stephen Gandel April 10th, 2010 Time Wall Street, it appears, likes tragedy. The worst U.S. coal accident...
- Descartes Confused?
From a time in the past... We are all familiar with the Descartes statement "I think, therefore I am" ["Cogito ergo sum"/"Dubito, ergo cogito, ergo sum ("I doubt, therefore I think, therefore I am")] but a colleague wrote that "Descartes had it backwards...'I...
Philosophy
The Market Is Up On News That I Wrote This Post
Everyday we hear an interesting causal claim "The market is up(down) on news that..." How do the financial reporters make this statement? Seem like there are three possibilities:
(1) They interview traders and ask them what influenced their thinking on the day.
(2) They examine stocks that are reasonably associated with the news of the day and imply the effect from the movement of those particular companies.
(3) They simply look for something important that happened and infer causation from correlation, post hoc ergo propter hoc.
Which one is it or is there another possibility?
- The Future Of Tv News
The last couple of weeks have seen a pair of contrasting retirement announcements in the TV news world. On the one hand, there was Katie Couric, a journalistic lightweight who tried to seem more serious with pre-prepared gotcha questions. On the other...
- Post Clinton, Ergo Propter Clinton
From Marty Peretz, Editor of The New Republic, Worse can be said of Bill Clinton's stumping in Connecticut for Joe (and Hillary's endorsement, too.) When Clinton came into the state, Lieberman and Lamont were running dead even in the polls, more...
- Michael Specter - The Danger Of Science Denial
There is an epidemic of growing proportions afflicting ever-increasing numbers of unsuspecting victims: poor, alarmist, fluffy and discombobulated thinking. We are drowning in a sea of logical fallacies, strangling each other with accusations of guilt...
- Coal Mine Tragedy Is Good For Business?
This is crass and cold and Wall Street is filled with "blood-thirsty vultures". "Bad Week for Coal Workers, Not So Bad Week for Coal Stocks" by Stephen Gandel April 10th, 2010 Time Wall Street, it appears, likes tragedy. The worst U.S. coal accident...
- Descartes Confused?
From a time in the past... We are all familiar with the Descartes statement "I think, therefore I am" ["Cogito ergo sum"/"Dubito, ergo cogito, ergo sum ("I doubt, therefore I think, therefore I am")] but a colleague wrote that "Descartes had it backwards...'I...